Amazon rainforest under scrutiny as COP30 highlights urgent need for accurate carbon monitoring

As the United Nations COP30 climate conference begins in Belém, Brazil, attention is focused on the Amazon rainforest, a region that embodies significant challenges and opportunities in the fight against climate change. Once a critical carbon sink, parts of the Amazon are now showing concerning trends, including some areas transitioning to net carbon emitters, as indicated by recent satellite data.

This shift highlights the urgent need for ongoing, reliable monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. During the conference, which will assess global progress under the Paris Agreement aimed at limiting global warming, policymakers will rely on accurate, science-based information to gauge climate action and bolster resilience against inevitable climate impacts. The Earth observation projects spearheaded by the European Space Agency (ESA) are playing a vital role in this endeavor, offering vital, satellite-based insights that enhance accountability in climate efforts.

ESA’s Climate Change Initiative is central to providing long-term datasets that adhere to Essential Climate Variables—critical aspects defined by the Global Climate Observing System. These datasets equip researchers globally with reliable scientific information, allowing countries to track their climate action and enhance their national strategies. Through initiatives like the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP-2), ESA is enabling comprehensive research and data analysis essential for fulfilling the Paris Agreement.

The global carbon budget, a key indicator of necessary climate action, is currently estimated at about 235 gigatonnes of CO2 as of January 2025. At the current rate of emissions, this budget could be exhausted in just six years. To understand this budget accurately, two main factors must be assessed: the amount of carbon absorbed by natural systems, primarily forests and oceans, and the emissions generated from human activities. While ocean sinks are mostly documented, measuring land carbon dynamics poses significant challenges.

RECCAP-2 aims to address these challenges by using satellite data to understand carbon storage and release across land surfaces globally. This combination of satellite observations, ground data, and modeling helps produce independent regional carbon budgets. Recent findings reveal concerning trends, such as the Amazon Basin losing 370 million tonnes of carbon between 2010 and 2020, particularly in its southeastern region, which raises alarms about possible tipping points.

Moreover, boreal and temperate forests in the northern hemisphere, previously reliable carbon sinks, have shifted to become carbon sources due to increased frequencies of droughts and wildfires influenced by climate change. In Europe, while forests have historically absorbed significant greenhouse gas emissions, the uptake has been declining, presenting challenges to the EU’s 2050 climate neutrality targets.

ESA’s array of Earth observation missions contributes valuable data in this landscape. Missions such as BIOMASS and EarthCARE are designed to monitor tropical forest carbon stocks and address climate-related uncertainties, respectively, while others like HydroGNSS focus on measuring soil moisture—integral to understanding carbon exchange dynamics.

As nearly 200 countries converge in Belém, the importance of accurate carbon tracking is underscored. The Global Stocktake, a regular assessment mandated by the Paris Agreement, will evaluate collective advancements towards climate objectives. The innovative methods employed by the CCI RECCAP-2 team will facilitate comparisons of greenhouse gas inventories, which are essential for transparency and measuring real progress.

ESA’s Director of Earth Observation Programmes emphasized the importance of verifying national emissions reports against independent satellite measurements to ensure accountability in climate commitments. With the tools to monitor climate action now established, the onus remains on governments to act decisively. The critical question is whether political leaders will seize the moment to make impactful changes in response to the stark realities presented by ongoing scientific observations and the pressing global climate situation.